Is an S&P 500 ETF high-risk?
Choosing your investments
The S&P 500 Average Daily Risk Control 10% USD Price Return Index seeks to limit the volatility of the S&P 500 to a target level of 10% by allocating to cash.
According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in February 2014 would be worth $5,971.20, or a gain of 497.12%, as of February 5, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases. Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 178.17% and gold's return of 55.50% over the same time frame.
ETFs are considered to be low-risk investments because they are low-cost and hold a basket of stocks or other securities, increasing diversification.
A mutual fund or ETF tracking the same index will deliver about the same returns, so you're not exposed to more risk one way or the other.
The S&P 500 index fund has evolved into an un-diversified portfolio concentrated on expensive technology companies. Many investors, professional and retail alike, don't appreciate the hidden but significant concentration, valuation and inflation risks.
Market risk
The single biggest risk in ETFs is market risk. Like a mutual fund or a closed-end fund, ETFs are only an investment vehicle—a wrapper for their underlying investment. So if you buy an S&P 500 ETF and the S&P 500 goes down 50%, nothing about how cheap, tax efficient, or transparent an ETF is will help you.
Discount Rate | Present Value | Future Value |
---|---|---|
6% | $1,000 | $3,207.14 |
7% | $1,000 | $3,869.68 |
8% | $1,000 | $4,660.96 |
9% | $1,000 | $5,604.41 |
The S&P 500 is all US-domiciled companies that over the last ~40 years have accounted for ~50% of all global stocks. By just owning the S&P 500 you miss out on almost half of the global opportunity set which is another ~10,000 public companies.
How a monthly investment of $300 could grow into $618,900. The S&P 500 returned 164% over the last decade, or about 10% per year. At that pace, $300 invested monthly in an S&P 500 index fund would be worth about $60,000 in one decade, $215,400 in two decades, and $618,900 in three decades.
Has an ETF ever gone to zero?
It is unlikely for its asset to go up 100% in a single day and so, an ETF can't become zero. An ETF follows a particular index and the securities are present at the same weight in it. So, it can be zero when all the securities go to zero.
In contrast, the riskiest ETF in the Morningstar database, ProShares Ultra VIX Short-term Futures Fund (UVXY), has a three-year standard deviation of 132.9. The fund, of course, doesn't invest in stocks. It invests in volatility itself, as measured by the so-called Fear Index: The short-term CBOE VIX index.
Buying high and selling low
At any given time, the spread on an ETF may be high, and the market price of shares may not correspond to the intraday value of the underlying securities. Those are not good times to transact business.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
For instance, some ETFs may come with fees, others might stray from the value of the underlying asset, ETFs are not always optimized for taxes, and of course — like any investment — ETFs also come with risk.
At least once a year, funds must pass on any net gains they've realized. As a fund shareholder, you could be on the hook for taxes on gains even if you haven't sold any of your shares.
In 1980, had you invested a mere $1,000 in what went on to become the top-performing stock of S&P 500, then you would be sitting on a cool $1.2 million today.
Assuming an average annual return rate of about 10% (a typical historical average), a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 could potentially grow to approximately $25,937 over 10 years.
Disadvantages of Using the S&P 500 as a Benchmark
Also, the index contains only larger market-cap companies from the U.S.4 In contrast, investors may own small-cap or foreign companies in their portfolios. Using the S&P 500 as a benchmark may be an inaccurate measure of portfolio return for individual investors.
Generally, yes. The S&P 500 is considered well-diversified by sector, which means it includes stocks in all major areas, including technology and consumer discretionary—meaning declines in some sectors may be offset by gains in other sectors.
Is it safe to put all money in one ETF?
As the old cliché goes, you do not want to put all your eggs into one basket. An ETF can guard against volatility (up to a point) if some stocks within the ETF fall. This removal of company-specific risk is the biggest draw for most ETF investors.
This means that the S&P 500 index does not have any exposure to small-cap and mid-cap stocks that may have the ability to grow much faster than large-cap stocks. 7. The index has risks inherent in equity investing: The S&P 500 has risks inherent in equity investing, such as volatility and downside risk.
Over the years, that money can really add up: If you kept that money in a retirement account over 30 years and earned that average 6% return, for example, your $10,000 would grow to more than $57,000. In reality, investment returns will vary year to year and even day to day.
Discount Rate | Present Value | Future Value |
---|---|---|
2% | $100 | $121.90 |
3% | $100 | $134.39 |
4% | $100 | $148.02 |
5% | $100 | $162.89 |
Calculate the Investment Needed: To earn $1,000 per month, or $12,000 per year, at a 3% yield, you'd need to invest a total of about $400,000.
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