Looking at @recte44 most recent feature highlighting each team's best draft pick got me thinking and looking at my own and Portland's draft history. It got me thinking about whether or not we drafted the correct guy when we did in those drafts. So I'm going to do a two-part draft series where I analyze whether or not we took the right guy (in the first round anyway) with the pick we had.
2040
In 2040, Portland had the 2nd overall pick. We lost the infamous coin flip with Charlotte that year in the expansion. The coin flip gave Portland the first pick in the expansion draft but the 2nd pick in the amateur draft. I had to dig through some team news to see who we even drafted that year because we didn't sign him. We took Pitcher Jorge Deleon with the 2nd overall pick. As mentioned, we didn't sign him which landed us a compensation pick for 2041 (more on that to come). The Lumberjacks made the right choice in not signing Deleon. In 2044 he was drafted again, but in the 2nd round by Jacksonville. He only appeared in the BBA for one season, making 15 appearances and logging a career 0.2 WAR.
Chris Moran, the 17th overall pick by Nashville, ended up being the career leader in WAR from that draft with a 26.57 mark. So needless to say, the draft wasn't necessarily loaded with talent. Quinn Richardson, the #1 pick in that draft, is listed with the 6th best WAR from those taken. Portland definitely made the right move in not signing and keeping Deleon. But it does appear there were some better players the team could have chosen. But as you'll see, we're going to say this was a good move draft by the Lumberjacks.
Right Move: Yes
2041
By not signing Deleon, Portland hoarded the 2nd and 3rd overall picks in the 2041 draft. Portland was developing its "Master Plan" around this time and wanted to build a solid pitching staff. So the team went after the best pitching they could find. With the 2nd pick, the team took Gusby Pinkerton. In his rookie season, Pinkerton finished 2nd in the Gillstrom voting and had a solid career. He currrently has the 7th best WAR from that draft with a 21.92 mark and a career that lasted 12 BBA seasons. Only two pitchers in that draft posted a higher WAR than Pinkerton. One of them was San Antonio's Ruben Vazquez. Considering he was selected in the 4th round of the draft, it is safe to say that he wasn't on anyone's R1 radar and bumped his way into prominence post-draft. Hindsight says the take Vazquez now, but no way anyone would have known that on draft night.
Four of the other guys that had a better WAR thank Pinkerton were out offensive guys. Cinema Jones being the best out of the bunch posting a 44.21 WAR, over twice as high as Pinkerton's. He and Henri Cherriere were taken 4th and 5th, just behind Portland's two draft picks and would have supplied more wins than either of Portland's selections. The only pitcher not named Vazquez to produce more WAR than Gusby was Portland's other first round selection in Francisco Franco. We traded Franco way too early but that's a team news for another day. Franco is still hanging around the minor leagues and pitched as recently as last season with Portland out of the bullpen. His 36.10 WAR is the 4th best from that 2041 draft class. So combined, the Lumberjacks drafted over 58.0 total WAR in their two picks from that draft. Considering the "Master Plan" we think Portland chose the correct guys here.
Right Move: Yes
2042
Still struggling as an expansion franchise, Portland nabbed the 2nd overall pick yet again in the 2042 draft. That damn coin flip continued to haunt as for the 3rd straight time, Charlotte nabbed the 1st pick. The 2042 draft produced some solid BBA players with 7 guys posting WARs over 40.00 in their career. One of those being Dave Lee, the number 1 pick taken by the Cougars from the draft. Unfortunately for the Lumberjacks, their pick was not one of those guys. Portland took Itze Woertgen with their pick and it did not work. Woertgen was traded to Edmonton in the Robert Menzies trade (again another potential series) but Woertgen was not the right pick. The now retired Woertgen pitched just 4 seasons in the BBA, producing just a 5.48 total WAR. Pedro Bustamante and Pancho Costa, the guys taken 3rd and 4th that year, produced 48.22 and 43.80 WAR for their careers. Portland should have shifted mindsets in this draft and went with offense as most of those 40+ war guys were position players. The draft didn't produce a lot of high end pitchers from the 1st round. The best guy wound up being Montreal's Carlton Casson who posted a 28.87 WAR and then Nashville's pick at 23 in Martin Roman with his 19.97 WAR.
Right Move: No
2043
Another 2nd overall pick followed in 2043. And again, the focus was on pitching. Warren Moore went off the board first and of course produced the most WAR by a pitcher taken in the 1st round with a 23.08 clip. Portland selected Cristian Burgos 2nd overall and it wasn't necessarily a bad pick. The best pick based on WAR that season in the first round was Phoenix's selection of catcher Ichizo Sugiyama (there is likely a post by @jiminyhopkins complaining of the draft pool somewhere) with his 33.44 mark. Catcher Davenport Hinkle is currently 5th on the list in WAR from this pool and was taken 13th overall. So Portland again could have won out had it selected a position player over focusing on pitching. Granted this draft produced some steals. The highest WAR was a 3rd round pick in Barney Lindsey who is at 60.37 WAR and counting. The 3rd and 4th guys based on WAR in this draft were selected in the 4th and 3rd rounds resepectively.
But back to Burgos, he finished his career with a modest 12.42 WAR, mainly with New Orleans. He only pitched in Portland later in his career. Albeit a low WAR, it still ranks as the 8th best WAR from this entire draft, again with 3 guys ahead of it going in later rounds. So hard to fault Portland for the pick. The better option, based on WAR now, that Portland could have taken was was Scott Moore who was selected by Jacksonville two picks after Burgos was selected. But hey, at least Portland didn't take Josh Hayworth, who went 3rd overall to Wichita.
Right Move: Maybe
2044
The 2044 draft isn't very good. Only 8 guys from this draft have posted a WAR over 10 in their career. One of those guys, Andrew Knight, was selected in the 5th round. Portland had dropped to the 4th pick by this point thanks in large part to Wichita's poor play and a slight thought that the Lumberjacks were ready to compete when they got Robert Menzies. That thought didn't pan out but what did pan out was Portland's selection with that 4th overall pick. The Lumberjacks selected Chris Thompson. Thompson became a pivotal cog in the Portland rotation for many seasons and was one of the mainstays in that 4-year run that saw the Lumberjacks make it to the post-season 4 straight times and to the Brewster Series twice. Thompson spent his first 9 seasons with Portland and is still in the league, pitching for Long Beach. This is important because it means his WAR is still changing. And as to why that is relevant is because of this draft, Thompson's current 35.06 WAR is the best of anyone else taken in the draft. And not only that, it is the best by a wide margin. Second on the list is the retired Gerald Sizemore who had 10 less WAR than Thompson and was taken 1st overall by the Aviators.
Right Move: Oh yeah!!!
